Glenn W. Clark, CS855 - Successful Prediction Analysis

Successful Prediction Analysis
Delivery of Speech
Recognition Software and Hardware

Introduction of Forecast

Speech recognition software was theorized as one of the upcoming revolutionary tools of the future. It was supposed to facilitate and improve our ability to interact with computing devices and improve the lives of specific groups of individuals, i.e.(amputees, environmentally challenged individuals, and the elderly) . It was touted in much the same way that the computer was supposed to eliminate the need for paper backup and eliminate paper all together. Users would be able to control lighting and perform automated functions like ordering products, and query the computer for specific items of interest and make airline reservations.

After thirty years of dedicated research and design computer researchers are now at a point where by their efforts in speech recognition software are fruitful.

B. Issues affecting the implementation of new technology:

The implementation of this product was hampered by the lack of hardware specifically dedicated to the industry in which it was trying to support. The process of development was inefficient and slow. Despite the promise of improved speech-chip technology, the industry faced technical as well as marketplace challenges . One of the major features that had to be overcome was the technology not being accepted by user applications. According to Carl D. Howe, (Blackfriars Communications Consultancy), consumer trust has reached a point whereby the product is accepted and usage fear is minimal. New chip technology using silicon as its primary media allows hardware to handle complex functions quickly and effectively without the excessive consumption of power.

C. Reason for success

The technology has overcome its initial limitations of not having sufficient processing power to support the most basic functions and the dissipation of heat. The resurgent use of this technology has been predicated by the advances in the cellular phone industry as well as such products as the IPad and the ITouch product line. The software industry notes that the usage of speech recognition software has been slow due to the lack of dedication of not only hardware manufacturers but firmware suppliers as well. In part, the advances in technology has allowed this prediction to finally come into global presence in stead of being the ugly stepsister of the mainstream software development side of the house (Todd Mozer, 2008) End users such as the Department of Defense and large order fulfillment houses and mainstream businesses that utilize the adaptive technology can now see the benefits of using such technology. One group that recognizes the benefits is the amputees and people who suffer from extremity mobility issues. Now that their initial concerns of integration and training have been resolved this technology can now be implemented to provide reliable benefits.
The issues of dealing with complex commands across multi media channels using automation controls have evolved over time to produce a stable platform.

D. Analysis and suggested alternate efforts

The implementation of new ideas has consistently been plagued with developmental costs and integration of hardware. Designers have been hampered to bring products to market due to various factors of which some of them are above and beyond their control. Limitations that relate to material performance can only be assessed after failure analysis has been performed. In many cases, the failures can only be addressed once the hardware and software are in the field. In the above referenced case, we have to understand the limitation of hardware (Microphones, Silicone based materials and Gallium Cyanide as a manufacturing media) all act as inhibitors to the incorporation and implementation of new product.
One of the major inhibitors to the development was the lack of training and consumer demand. “The fundamental problem facing speech chips is the lack of large-scale
demand for speech technology in general “ (Howe, 2009) Investigation shows that consumers haven’t expressed much interest in using the technology, even when technology is available, consumers are reticent to use it for fear of failure, i.e. (such as in cars). Consumer need for cutting edge technology has not been developed. Training in some instances requires both computer and human dynamics (Speech Dialects Recognition as well as anomalies concerning variances regarding speech impediments) Additional areas that suggest a faster transition would be the beta testing of new technology prior to publication of a new product. In the world of high finance and the search for R&D dollars, it is understandable that companies overstate their accomplishments in order to attract investor buy in.elopers’

Resources:
http://www.ece.cmu.edu/~rutenbar/pdf/rutenbar-speechcompmag06.pdf
Peller, Shlomo, CEO and founder of Speechchip International
Mozer, Todd, CEO of speech-chip pioneer Sensory Inc.

CS855, Assignment 5, Cool Web Tool 2.0, Part Two

Interesting tools to facilitate effective communications within organizations as well as fostering the ability to share data in a timely manner: These products allow for the accumulation of data and allow the compilation using centralized sharing protocol:

___________________________________________________________________________

GoFundMe: During this class, I have been motivated to once again give back to the community in which I live. This product offers resources for for collaboration and start up operations such as Pegasus International to tap into monies for Profit entities as well as Not for profits as well. The major benefit to this site is the templated applications and the second positive aspect is the availability of technical support from their staff. Its use is not limited to business units but charitable endeavors as well.

http://www.go2web20.net/app/?a=gofoundme

___________________________________________________________________________

Photo Peach: This product is similar to Animoto Video. It appears to be similar but offers additonal tools. The product demonstrates a degree of flexibility in allowing different formats for pictures for publication. Instead of having to buy a subscription, the company offers it free to the users. This product can be used for personal or business applications. The business application would be beneficial in the exchange of proposal data within departments. (Especially in the engineering redering of process controll data sheets)

http://www.go2web20.net/app/?a=photopeach
___________________________________________________________________________

ShareBack: Although I am not a big user of Social networking sites, I can see the importance of getting feedback and place value when feedback is received. This particular product appears to have the ability to interface with facebook and other Social networking sites and allows for the quick exchange of data. It has the ability to provide similar connectivity as twitter and facebook but lacks the size aspect. The format is easier to use and the security appears to be higher with the incorporation of virus detection software. This is a development product and in time it should surpass it competitors as far as flexibility. This should be limited to internal or departmental exchange of information. From a cost effective standpoint, I am confident that it will work within the framework that is needed.

http://www.go2web20.net/app/?a=sharebacks

___________________________________________________________________________

Google Docs: I was recently introduced to this product and found it to be easy to operate and compose new documents for business as well as personal use. The product offers a wide variety of templates and range from business, finance, and personal entertainment. The area that I found to be most usefull was the preparation of business documentation. It does offer flexibility around the home for budgeting and preparation of financial spreadsheets as well. One element of particular interest is the resume composition section. The flexibity of this area is unquestionable. This product should be used in any environment and expecially when you need to collaborate with team members and allow them to edit group materials for presentation and consistency.

https://docs.google.com/

___________________________________________________________________________

Skype: Rounding out the top five choices of all the top Web tools is Skype. This tool is packed with features that are amazing. While traveling in both Japan and in China, I was able to call back to the States using my laptop computer at no additional long distance charges. It's most beneficial feature is the ability to conference call and the ability to connect with standard phones as well as cell phones all over the globe. The range is limitless and the clarity is fantastic. The use of this product domestically is superior to the IM features that most internet users enjoy. This product should be used when you are having poor cell phone or land line communication issues in overseas markets. I whole heartedly recommend this product for collaboration between groups and family. The accessibility is superior.

http://www.skype.com/

___________________________________________________________________________

Glenn W. Clark, Here We Groan Again - What is good for the US should be good for Mexico

Here we Groan Again

In the second back to school address given by Mr. Obama, we once again find him hiding behind children to make a political statement. The alagory of Americans going overseas to do consulting projects is different than illegals coming to the United States and taking our money back to their countries. Mr. Obama somehow finds fault with Americans working legally in foreign countries and yet fails to admonish the illegal workers who come over here and steel from us.
Further analysis of the back to school video showed two rows of school children up front ant six to eight rows of reporters and various other media representatives taking up front row seats.

Who was Mr. Obama trying to inspire? The students or the media? I have provided the link for your review.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2010/09/14/president-s-back-school-speech

GWC

Glenn W. Clark, Week 6 - Experimentation with creating a PodCast

Hello All

This weeks assignment was interesting and the application of different technology proved very enlightening. The Referenced number for the Podcast was #35601 under the call sign Badger. The title is: Diplomatic Delivery of knowledge" Please find the link listed below:

http://www.gabcast.com/gc1/index.php?a=search&query=35601

Thank You

Glenn W. Clark

Pegasus Video

Create your own video slideshow at animoto.com.

Glenn W. Clark, Week 9 Halal, Chapters 8-10





"Technology's Promise"
   by William E. Halal

Chapters 8 thru 10

Chapter 8: Shifting structures of society: Business, Government, and Other Institutions in a Knowledge Age

* The Creative Destruction of Institutions. -

As we begin to understand the dismantling of the institutions, we have now passed the era of both X and Y generations. The upcoming generations will be know as the "me too" What is the Me Too" generation and how they differ from the ones before. Well this is the Crux of the discussions. How about the days of bringing the family dog to work and decreasing the green house gasses. These are not new concepts, but simple revisiting of old ideas that are brought to lite with a new name. " An old candy bar in a new rapper does not make it new again, It is still an old candy bar just a harder" This is the case. The candy just gets harder and harder to swallow. Once again, we find ourselves attempting to tackle ideas of Health care, Social Reform as well as various other unsustainable ideas of Americana. Several cases pointed out in this chapter brings to light the social dogma's and attempts to repackage them under the notion and accomplishing minor social changes. As pointed out in (Hallal, 2008, Page ) we have only began to nibble at the underlying root causes of unsustainable. These required changes need to extend well beyond the organizational changes and the institutional models that have been put forth. Among the most promising is the idea of "Self Managed Internal Enterprises, ( Halal, Pg. 109)


* From Hierarchy to Enterprise

What exactly is Hierarchy; Is this a line or staff function in the design of a organization. In order to understand this, lets understand the root of the word. Hierarchy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaJump to: navigation, search A hierarchy (Greek: hierarchia (ἱεραρχία), from hierarches, "leader of sacred rites") is an arrangement of items (objects, names, values, categories, etc.) in which the items are represented as being "above," "below," or "at the same level as" one another and with only one "neighbor" above and below each of power is called a power structure. Abstractly, a hierarchy is simply an ordered set or an acyclic graph.
A hierarchy can link entities either directly or indirectly, and either vertically or horizontally. The only direct links in a hierarchy, in so far as they are hierarchical, are to one's immediate superior or to one of one's subordinates, although a system that is largely hierarchical can also incorporate alternative hierarchies. Indirect hierarchical links can extend "vertically" upwards or downwards via multiple links in the same direction, following a path. All parts of the hierarchy which are not linked vertically to one another nevertheless can be "horizontally" linked through a path by traveling up the hierarchy to find a common direct or indirect superior, and then down again. This is akin to two co-workers or colleagues; each reports to a common superior, but they have the same relative amount of authority.




As mentioned in the classic business school format, where do we draw the line on participatory management. Halal points out on page 109 that a particular CEO was having issues with the IT unit. Since when did this become a problem. The inherent nature of an IT unit is not one of producer nor consumer. This is a support unit and is accounted for under GAAP regulations out on the balance sheet as just that. To attempt to convert into a profit center mentality is hog wash. As mentioned in the Internal Market Economics" section, we begin to understand the limited experience that some managers and CEO's have. In order to fully understand this new definition, the link below sheds lite and should support the definition process. www.oecd.org/dataoecd/46/24/33765116.pdf - Similar. Further analysis and a more through understanding of what cost center management entails is paramount to the full understanding of these issues. As pointed out on page 112, Internal Enterprises are fragmentation's and will only work with differing product lines or centralized core manufacturing concepts. This type of organization is typically shared by Retail Organizations the share warehousing operations and common element or cross marketing functions.


* From Profit to Community

What can be said for the power of Appreciative Inquiry(AI). As managers, we have the obligation to empower our employees to do what is correct and to trust their collective training. The some of the individual parts is more important the sum of the whole in some instances. Modern businesses provide training in order to teach underlings what and when to do specific tasks that are in the best interest of the unit. Management style has always been one of individualism. Team building and in accordance with the classic definition of getting a job done. So we examine the idea of mutual collaboration and leadership. Why does a manager need to be autocratic. The adage of Iron Fist or Velvet Glove comes into play. How different is this concept than the Delphi leading question for the focal alignment of the parties involved. Halal points out "This is but one example, yet I think it highlights a key principle in leadership today: "In a world of escalating complexity and empowerment of people, leaders must cultivate the art of helping diverse groups collaboratively" (Halal, 2008, pg. 114)

The third aspect of this chapter explores the concept of social responsibility. Emboldened into the modern idea of management we must respect the firms that can incorporate this premise into their daily management style. The aspect of responsibility has moved this management tool to the realm of a luxury when available instead of a staple. As mentioned, this individual style has been relegated to that of a weak link in the modern tool box of management. In the last five years, management interaction with shareholders/stakeholders has molded the image of information sharing into the Corporate Community. Elements of the Corporate Community show that it" is becoming clear that organizations are basically political in the investors, employees, clients, and other stakeholders are all power centers that are essential to success." (Halal, 2008, Pg 115) Unlike capital, knowledge can flow indefinitely. The capital aspect in the Corporate Community is comprised of both tangible as well as intangible assets. In the above aspect , we must ask the question of "Why" The why aspect means that collaboration is economically productive because stakeholders and shareholders benefit through the sharing of knowledge and paradigm shifts.



* From Capitalism to Demographic Enterprise


The understanding of this aspect is essential in the development of a good manager. Talent development is one of the hardest tasks known to corporations today and this is problematic across the universe. Corporate management must invest time and goodwill to cultivate productive relationships with stakeholder groups as well as shareholders. This basic concept shows that both groups need to demonstrate support for central management schemes in order to facilitate good management style. Additional analysis shows that stakeholder developments promotes effective communications and builds the trust required to build that power bas that essential for any management team to operate. As stated on page 120, "American politics move in roughly 20 year cycles and severe dis=appointment in the second Bush Administration seems to have ended the conservative wave that began with Ronald Reagan election" Recent leadership models have all compared their picks to emulate the efforts of President Reagan and none have come close. In essence, President Reagan was able to foster the ultimate communicator role via the emotional buy in of the Stakeholders. ( US Citizens)


Chapter 9: An Age of Consciousness:

The Next Place in Technology's Promise?

What is Consciousness:

The idea of Consciousness if vague and has been beet to death. Consciousness is not the same as being alert, It does not even remotely say that if we apply the mirror test that we would even fog the mirror. Quite the contrary. The Author is simply describing a state of being. So once again we ask the simple question:


Consciousness refers to not only your awareness but also your thoughts, memories, feelings, and the sensations concerning the surrounding environment. Studies show that your conscious frame of mind is constantly evolving and is in a constant state of flux. Examples of this might show that in one moment you may be focused on reading this article. Your consciousness may then shift to the memory of a conversation you had earlier with a co-worker. In the next moment, you might feel uncomfortable your chair or maybe your thought patterns shift to planning activities such as where you might be eating dinner at. These shifting streams of imagery are referred to as targets of interest and can change dramatically from one moment to the next, but your experience of it seems smooth and effortless. Conscious experimentation was one of the first topics studied by early psychologists. Structuralists use introspection as a tool to analyze and report conscious sensations, thoughts, and experiences. Among the better known psychologist is William James. His studies concluded that consciousness is like a stream. Manifestations are unbroken and have little effect due to shifts and changes of the subjects emotional state. While the focus of much of Mr. James work was in the field of clinical psychology his studies shifted to purely observable behaviors during the first half of the twentieth century. Continual research on human consciousness has grown tremendously since the 1950s. What aspects of consciousness do researchers study? Topics such as sleep deprivation, dream analysis, hypnosis, and the affects of psychotropic drugs are a few of the major topics taken on and studied by psychologists. Central questions arise about what causes it and how does consciousness really affect us have yet to be answered.

The author notes that current studies show that information technologist (IT) are driving the studies of consciousness into the realm of androids replacing humans and smart computers that posses the ability of reasoning into the center stage of neuroscience research with the apex of this technology hitting the mainstream market in about 2020. One interesting note made by the author was the notion of the human spirit. Where does this come into play, or is it all encompassing.

Interesting note and comparison is the idea that scientists are materialist and associate consciousness to the brain functions and would explain the relationship between modern day gamers and strategist of the past. Review of Bread ball experiment shows some interesting abilities to calculate if this was in fact correct. Addi tonal areas that proved interesting to read was the computer modeling argument.





Chapter 10: A Virtual Trip Through Time

The author begins this chapter with his appreciation for happenings of the past starting with the cave men and their quest for fire and progressing up through the middle ages and ultimately the iron age. Historically, we can make the same analogy of our pursuits. Buck Rogers and his quest to conquer space. Instead of chasing fire, we chased the atomic bomb and now we are chasing the laser weapons. Where does the need to gather stuff end. When will we humans be content with not knowing what is three hundred million light years away. Ultimately the answer is never. The Author points out on page 146, "Anticipating the future is more fascinating than marveling at the past" How can this be. How did we figure out that by mixing charcoal, sulfur and simple salt, we could make gun powder. How did we figure out that if we boil the mud that bubbled out of the ground, we would get gasoline and we could burn that in a mechanical thing that went around and around and if we put a gear on it we can turn bigger wheels. I personally think that the past holds the key to the future. We have to understand it in order to move forward with confidence. What is the next big discovery. Is it cancer cure. Well I think that if we study the past, we will find elements that already do that. Will it be telepathic communication. Well, No we can in some instances already do that. Lets just stick to learning to do constructive things instead of destructive things. We will all be better off.

We have become a Nation of doing nothing

"We Do Nothing"

As the world spins and the sun rises in the east and sets in west, we (the citizens of the United States) do nothing to correct a horrible mistake. Mr. Obama was elected under false pretenses and outright lies and we do nothing to correct this problem. If this was a white man, he would have been impeached. Yes you are correct again. We Do Nothing One of the latest cartoons that has recently come out of Scotland makes fun of this and the whole world laughs at us. The United States has become the laughing stock or the world. And We do Nothing. Mr Obama loves to spend the tax payers dollars on expensive vacations and use Air Force One for these junkets and once again, We Do Nothing. Mr. Obama has spent millions on worthless initiatives to stimulate the economy even after his advisers have told him that they will not work and We Do Nothing to real him in. Our senior citizens and veterans are in worse shape and are frightened about the quality of health care that they receive. This group of citizens fought for our country and gave their all and once again, We Do Nothing to help them. We used to think that the British had some quirky but wonderful sense of humor but this one has just shown up on the international radar and it is indicative of what foreign countries think of our once mighty country. And once again, We Do Nothing. And once again, we have issues. Have we even checked out to see if Mr. Obama graduated from college like he claimed have. Oh We Do Nothing. Just for the sake of the first black person being put in office.

In my pursuit of a political office, I have decided to use this as my campaign speech. " If elected, I solemnly swear and affirm the I will do nothing" and you the tax payers will pay me massive amounts of money to do nothing for the betterment of those who elect me.

GWC

Evaluating technology using Modified Delphi Process

September 1, 2010: by Glenn W. Clark, CS 855, Colorado Technical University

Analysis of technology using the modified Delphi process shows potential flaws and opportunities for errors.

As noted in "The Fortune Sellers" , Sherden points out that the Delphi process was developed as a brain-storming session with a panel of experts. (Page 167). Further review of literature indicates that the process of forecasting using the Delphi process is hazardous since all forecasting is based on idea of extrapolation or modeling based on the insight of individual team members and relies heavily on analogies for its basis for information accumulation. From this extrapolation, we can assume that true extrapolation or forecasting is flawed and cannot be accomplished using one specific process. Successful forecasting can be isolated to several key area. Managing risk is predicated on the ability of successful strategist to maintain an alertness and responsiveness to trends. This process is combined with vulnerability to minimize errors through avoiding long term commitments or grand and elaborate strategic organizational development plans. Modern business planning regularly talks about the management of risk.

Three specific area of managing risk using the modified Delphi model that draws on the combined insights and experiences of experts includes but are not limited to the following criteria:

Cooperating with lead users: Early phases of development demand monitoring and response to market fluctuations and customer demands is essential to avoid errors in technology design.

Limiting risk exposure: Limiting risk in today's society shows a risk avoidance methodology and can be altered via the usage of sound financial practices and minimizes the adversity of pre- recognized loss criteria as acceptable. In the manufacturing sector, over development cost and the ability to predict timing issues of future cash flow demands a strong reliance on GAAP methods. Eliminating risk on the other hand demands compliance to economizing on capital commitments and modification of the fixed cost models that are currently in place. Current trends for limiting risk exposure shows the inter market development of strategic alliances and shared venturing as it relates to the development of new initiatives.

Flexibility: The combined information of the experts using the above referenced process shows high levels of case congruency when it comes to flexibility. This mindset are crucial to the long term survival of any organization and the application of technology. Market conditions in recent years show that concept to market has decreased to one half of what it was back in the seventies. Grant points out in his book (Contemporary Strategies Analysis) page 303 that top level management need to closely monitor the environment and respond quickly to market signals to maximize profitability and minimize repeated failures and market demise. The idea of applying flexibility and using the Delphi process to evaluate a situation means keeping options open and closely monitoring the application of technology until its potential becomes clear. (Grant, Pg 303)

We have been lied to again - Obama - Muslim

We have been lied to again.

Maybe the correct way to say this is: We have all heard it but we tend to trust people.
Each morning in Colorado Springs, a group of elderly citizens meet for coffee at McDonald and as usual, they discuss world events. On August 30, 2010, I had the pleasure of talking to a stately gentleman who is a person of color. (important fact) This person (Fictitious name Jim) is a minister and was raised in the southern part of Louisiana. He is 68 years of age. His travels took him to Chicago where he finished his military training and settled down to eventually raise a family.

During the course of the conversation, we discussed the ideas set forth by Mr. Obama. Jim stated that Mr. Obama was just a common street thug and he knew Mr. Obama when he was running the streets of Chicago with common street criminals and that most of his Friends where either dead or are currently serving jail time for crimes committed. The topic of religion was raised and the question was posed: Was Mr. Obama a Christian or was he practicing his Muslim faith. The reply was offered without reservation nor hesitancy in any fashion. "Mr. Obama is not a Christian nor has he ever attended formal services to his knowledge"

Once again, we must ask the ever pending question. If Mr. Obama will lie about his religious affiliation, then what else is he not telling us. It is apparent that as Thomas Jefferson stated, "The Tree of Liberty must be renewed" The people of the United States need to stand up and fight for what we believe in. "Impeachment" This country was not founded on Muslim principals. This is a Christian country and all of us need to hold ourselves to the higher standards of what current administration personnel aspire to. Stand up for your rights and your family.

Signed GWC