Evaluating technology using Modified Delphi Process

September 1, 2010: by Glenn W. Clark, CS 855, Colorado Technical University

Analysis of technology using the modified Delphi process shows potential flaws and opportunities for errors.

As noted in "The Fortune Sellers" , Sherden points out that the Delphi process was developed as a brain-storming session with a panel of experts. (Page 167). Further review of literature indicates that the process of forecasting using the Delphi process is hazardous since all forecasting is based on idea of extrapolation or modeling based on the insight of individual team members and relies heavily on analogies for its basis for information accumulation. From this extrapolation, we can assume that true extrapolation or forecasting is flawed and cannot be accomplished using one specific process. Successful forecasting can be isolated to several key area. Managing risk is predicated on the ability of successful strategist to maintain an alertness and responsiveness to trends. This process is combined with vulnerability to minimize errors through avoiding long term commitments or grand and elaborate strategic organizational development plans. Modern business planning regularly talks about the management of risk.

Three specific area of managing risk using the modified Delphi model that draws on the combined insights and experiences of experts includes but are not limited to the following criteria:

Cooperating with lead users: Early phases of development demand monitoring and response to market fluctuations and customer demands is essential to avoid errors in technology design.

Limiting risk exposure: Limiting risk in today's society shows a risk avoidance methodology and can be altered via the usage of sound financial practices and minimizes the adversity of pre- recognized loss criteria as acceptable. In the manufacturing sector, over development cost and the ability to predict timing issues of future cash flow demands a strong reliance on GAAP methods. Eliminating risk on the other hand demands compliance to economizing on capital commitments and modification of the fixed cost models that are currently in place. Current trends for limiting risk exposure shows the inter market development of strategic alliances and shared venturing as it relates to the development of new initiatives.

Flexibility: The combined information of the experts using the above referenced process shows high levels of case congruency when it comes to flexibility. This mindset are crucial to the long term survival of any organization and the application of technology. Market conditions in recent years show that concept to market has decreased to one half of what it was back in the seventies. Grant points out in his book (Contemporary Strategies Analysis) page 303 that top level management need to closely monitor the environment and respond quickly to market signals to maximize profitability and minimize repeated failures and market demise. The idea of applying flexibility and using the Delphi process to evaluate a situation means keeping options open and closely monitoring the application of technology until its potential becomes clear. (Grant, Pg 303)