Glenn W. Clark - Week 5 - SDP Disc & Case Analysis

What constitutes the SDP Format;



SDP (Session Description Protocol) is a broad description of the rules associated with the viewing of streaming video. and how the exchanges of data can or will be allowed. Additional information concerning SDP describes specific end points and how participants will be allowed to participate in the sessions



Criteria for formulating a concise SDP are as follows. (suggestions only)



* Each session will consists of communications end points that will also contain a suggested series of acceptable interactions.

* The sessions will be proctored and administrated when electronic connections are established by the moderator.

* Termination of the SDP will be when the end points have stopped participating.



Note: One example of a SDP is Videoconferencing. Typically these are part of a large corporation training department and will include multiple department participation and could encompass multiple plant locations.



The typical SDP presentation will include the following information:



* The session name:

* The purpose of the presentation:

* Applicable URL's and required passwords in order to access the data

* The date:

* Time that the presentation will begin:



Note: SDP's are primarily used on large WANs (wide-area networks) and include Internet platforms and is designed to function on multiple user platform environments. SDP was designed to promote evolutionary learning in terms of meaning and judgments of salience among the observations made by the participants, as indicate by the principle of evolutionary learning formula.



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Analysis of Case:



Case Chapter 15: "Anticipating Alternative Futures in Energy Efficiency"



Description of issue: Explore the potential energy savings that will result from the marketplace embarrassment of energy efficiency products and services in the hope of eventually lowering the long-term development costs and lessen the environmental impact of the region's electrical grid system.


Desired results of implementing these suggestions: Produce a healthier economy and a cleaner environment.


Project name: The project name was developed using the DELPHI process and was agreed to be called the "Consumer Trends in the Pacific Northwest and the US"


Date of meeting: March 14-16, 2001

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Discovery: The Discovery was was conducted using the SDP and the Delphi protocol which was a modified from a White Board production. The number of participants was maintained at 35 stakeholders which represented 30 organizations. The initial Alliance highlighted 168 trends and proposed more than 98 action steps to deal with these issues and seventy one regional trends. consensus was reached with a deliberated and boiler plated down to over fifty eight strong opinions and sub groups of collaboration was four.



Design Stage: Participants generated more than ninety proposed actions that affected all four groups in a desirable way. (Future energy efficiencies for the Pacific Northwest Group) Further collaborative work identified eight action options desirable regional alternative for the future implementation by the alliance or other participating bodies. In addition to selecting viable trends within the twenty four themes that affect this project at the national level, the group was successful in the interpretation of significant amounts of data and demonstrated the capacity to communicate to other stakeholders in order to facilitate effective collaboration to attain goals. In accordance with SDP protocol, a trigger question was posed:

"What national / regional trends / events would you consider as having the greatest impact on electric energy efficiency over the next fifteen years"

The trigger question allowed for the additional sixty-seven national trends to be generated of which thirty trends where intensified. As directed by the SDP protocol, all of the questions where clarified and disseminated to the entire group as well as the co-laboratory participants. Stakeholders where further directed to expound upon this data and identified sixty regional trends and eleven from the trigger questions. Salient information shows that eight of the regional trends where also included in the plausibility tree of influence that was mentioned in subsequent tables. (See original case study "How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and Power, (Christakis, 2006))

Based upon input from the stakeholders and the judgements offered , three of the four dominate tracks are connected and interpretation of the significant linkages where minimized and defined as consumption issues and their awareness of the need to protect the environment as described in the "green" technologies. Additional ideas that became evident was the incorporation of the "energy web concept" trend. One important element that came out of this discussion was the sustainability issue.

The Author further states: "I find sustainable development as the most important context for handling any thought about energy matters in the whole world, and the "sustainability" (leaving our descendants a livable planet to develop themselves with no imposed restrictions) is my main interest and the reason to be here as a participant."

Participants agreed that the above trend was a deep diver. ( Item that present the most salient and opportunity for attainment). The idea of sustainability tended to support the inclusion on the Plausibility Tree. In affect, the interpretation of the stakeholders judgments in terms of plausibility influences among the trends an imperative cost savings by reducing the energy consumption per-capita among all countries.

Third Day Action Items:

Activities included the incorporation of the ideas presented during the design stage that where developed from the SDP dialogue. Incorporation onto the Plausibility Tree of National and regional trends. These suggestion where made in concert by the co-laboratory and conference participants. Participants generated and clarified ninety -one action items. Members of the facilitation team prepared a set of action options according to perceived similarities by responding to Delphi questions. Action items were provided to the participants and a options Field pattern was displayed on the Collaborative Facility in order to promote effective Cross group share of information. Using the categorical view of what a stakeholder is, and the inclusion of participants showed the options that they felt where salient. Out of a total of more than ninety action options proposed by the participants, fifty-seven received one or more votes and only fourteen received three or more votes, which indicated a significant convergence in terms of relative salience among the participants.

Four teams of stakeholders were then asked to consider how they would combine action options across all categories to impact in a desirable way the national and regional trends presented in the plausibility tree. Outcome shows that eight of the ninety-one action options were selected by 3 or more teams. These are include in the consensus regional report and therefore impacts the plausibility map in a desirable way. This phenomenon happens in SDP co-laboratories due to the design and the promotion of evolutionary learning. Results where presented using standard flip charts and the panel approach. Graphs presented included the Plausibility Tree, Options Tree and a Team Scenario.

Small Team Regional Futures

The consensus future report was developed as a composite of the four interdisciplinary teams. It consisted of eight action steps that where selected by three of more of the four team members. ( A tally of the results are present in the original case study) The overriding intent of the team action scenarios was directly targeted toward the team of Energy Efficiency aspect. The interpretation of these finding is that by implementing the Consensus Regional Future suggestions, the PNW is taking actions to have desirable impacts on the Energy Efficiency of two tracks of the plausibility tree. Energy conservation and life-style changes will come to pass int he region over time.

Conclusion: Implementation of these actions items will impact energy consumers directly in a desirable way. The trends identified by stakeholders identified as belonging in the Energy Efficiency and will consequently be supportive of the Alliance's mission. In addition, further incorporation of these suggestions will also have indirect desirable impacts in terms of social sustainability as manifested by the lifestyles adopted by the consumers of the region

Glenn W. Clark Week 6, Cool Web Tool #2

Two Fold cool WEB Tools are:

After spending three weeks on the road in rural America (Montana), I came to realize just how limited in our ability to communicate.

I spent the last two weeks persched on top of a John Deere Combine cutting wheat in Idaho. During this wonderful experience, of being located one hour outside town with no WIFI or High Speed connnection, it prooved to be very enlightening. I missed conference calls and the standard Saturday moring Second life log in. I found myself sitting in a lawn chair outside of a grocery store in Billings Montana attempting to log in. I eventually loged in and found myself listening to a graphic conversation of musical artist. The gist of the conversation consisted of curseing and racial slurs being cast about like droplets of water from the shaking of a dog after a bath. The experience was not particulary educational but proved to be an experience.

It became obvious to several participants that I did not belong in their group. I did not engage in the conversation but out of couriosity, I listened. What I thought was a friendly gesture, was in fact a devistating gift from one of the participants. Yep, a major virus. My entire world at that time came crashing down when I opened my computer the next time. Lets just say that I hate the Zero Virus. I also became acquainted with Isass.exe problems. What a joy. Not

References:

My cool web tools for this situation consists of WWW.AVG.com, WWW.MicrosoftSecurityEssentials, and a small program being developed WWW.WebVirus Assasinator.com

So my cool Web 2.0 tool is two fold

The element of using the WEB 2.0 or pod casting in the education field is growing at a quantum speed. The particular feed that I have provided was proctored by Mr. Jonah Bossewitch on October 17, 2008. He is responsible for the New Media Education 2008 at the Columbia University. This presentation was given as a introduction into participatory media and ideas of how to effectively use this Web2.0 tool and is mainly geared toward giving participants a write able medium for learning and collaboration. There are various methods of collaboration such as teamwork, group work, pier production and distributive research currently being used in education today.

Outside of the world of education in the world at large our economy is transitioning from consumers to producers. The major motivation for the development of this RSS medium is networking. Business operating in today's society need to learn how to appreciate the network as an effective method for communication of relevant tasks. RSS allows for a more effective and substantive method of information delivery thus enhancing the ideas of creating, publishing and sharing. Elements essential to usage of this PodCast or RSS tool attempts to solidify the variables of Aggregating, Filtering and Networking of information in order to teach. One important element conveyed was the cultural imperative aspect contained within the Pod Cast delivery.

Other medium for the accumulation of data is from such sources as NME, Crowdvine, and WIKI Feeds. In understanding these applications, they all use what is referred to as RSS feeds. RSS = Really Simple Syndication. Other indications of this type of medium has been call speed feeds and are represented on the videos as either Orange boxes or the XML logo. The underlying reason for this is the Exposing of data out of the RSS format in a standard transparent medium to push and pull of information across the Internet. Using these sets of tools such as wiki's and Blogs are paramount to creating efficiency's in communication. Historically, we see the communications mediums do not die, they are just transformed into more efficient methods. They just keep evolving. The major abilities of this technologies in education allows for students to catch up on assignments was discussed and the use allows us to experiment in education. Micro community. In education the privacy issue of using such mediums has become paramount and has been heightened by recent events in the new.. Exposing the kids to the internet dangers shows recklessness and is dangerous. One of the major players is Flicker which is owned by Yahoo. Areas of concern is how to exhibit millions of pictures that currently reside on their system. The usage of GEO tags and the authentication process is limited to Social Honesty

Significant benefits shows that work done in the open and virtually eliminates the accusation of plagiarism and educational dishonesty. Work within the Ivory tower of education shows that usage of RSS promotes participatory learning and takes advantage of the ability to match up students with mentors. As the methodologies further evolve, it will increase our ability to communicate with each other.

References


http://www.truveo.com/search?query=Web%202.0%20Tool&results=12&page=2&extra=Web%202.0%20Tool#Web%202.0%20Tool%20

Glenn.Clark follow on to week Week 4 Futurist

08/13/2010 Continuation of Analysis of several Futurist

Upon further review of assigned readings regarding futurist, it became apparent that although very knowledgeable, the wishful and sometimes whimsical ideas that have been presented represent on more than pie in the sky thinking and attempt to bring our attention to alternative issues that are in play. Several ideas have been thrown around and terms like Skynet have been raised. The easiest way to discuss this would be to say nonsense and this cannot be done. Who am I or others to say that this will never happen. Review of the past conjure's up the ideas of laying telephone wires across the ocean floor in order to enable communication was once touted as nonsense. Some said that this could never be accomplished. Wireless telephones that could transmit pictures as late as the middle 1970's was wishful thinking and was dreaming to some. The adage of "The body can achieve whatever the mind believes" comes into play. Let us examine the ideas that where in fact present by such great as:

* H.G. Wellls. The ideas where dismissed as non attainable or just Science Fiction. As noted on page 212, "Wells also made many erroneous predictions involving future technology and society's fate among them that eugenics would continually improve humanity through selective breeding and weed out criminal and other undesirable elements and to control population. This simple idea of profiling has continually been raised. All of us can see first hand how egregious the idea of controlling the population via selective breeding has become. Similarly the Nazi regime had similar ideas in the early 1940's

Not long ago we saw Buck Rogers and is ideas of rocket ships. These where just cartoons and not supposed to be real. Who is to say that Plasma Warp Drives and ScramJets will not one day replace the conventional Turbo Fan engines of today.

Sigmond Freud in 1928 wrote "The Future of Illusion" and makes reference to the Inevitable transition. He further goes on to aver that "Religion is a lost cause" If this is the case and he is correct, we need to go back in time and study such writings that contradict the facts. What is religion. The earliest of earthly inhabitants believed back in the stone age. Early Greeks practiced worship of multiple gods and it was not until the practice of monotheism did the idea of religion begin to take on the heat of public riduclule . The religious beliefs in this country are still strong and will remain so for a long time. We are on the cusp of another religious crusade and the idea of Christian, Hindus, and all the other organized religions v Muslim is very real.

Winston Churhill in 1932 wrote and article entitled "Fifty years Hence" in which he attempts to predict the future. As mentioned in "The Fortune Sellers" (Sherden, 1998)

Edward Bellamy and his ideas of Utopian living where indicative of far out thinking. In 1887, he wrote the "Looking Backward from the year 2000) The idea a class inequity and ignorance being eradicated is humorous by today's standards. Utopian ideas have always been presented and unfortunately the authors of such works fail to acknowledge the attitudes and bad behavior of mankind. This has always been and will always be no matter what governments attempt to create.

Karl Marx who is known as the father of communism predicted how the proletarist would in fact take over the world by forming centralized governments to manage the distribution of power, administering the social and welfare reforms and bring about the total infusion of socialism. As noted on pate 204, "How could Marx have imagined that in today's capitalist society and with regard to current management beliefs that employees are valued assets"

As a personal choice, I choose to follow the predictions of several authors and not one person. We must understand the predicting the future is gender neutral.

One great American knew more than any prophet of his day. A founder of our country, he even predicted our current predicament. If he could see the state of our government right now, I am sure that he would be handing out guns (or muskets and swords as they were in his time).
Upon doing a study of the Futurist, I was able to isolate one individual who was ahead of his time. How was this person (name left blank ) able to predict the future with such accuracy? The dynamics of who he is will become evident when you read the last quote which was written and published in 1802.
Quotes
* When we get piled upon one another in large cities, as in Europe, we shall become as corrupt
as Europe ..TJ
* The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not. TJ
* It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world. TJ
* I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from waisting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them. TJ
* My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government. TJ
* No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms. TJ
* The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government. TJ
* The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. TJ
* To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical. TJ

This great futurist (Thomas Jefferson) said in 1802:"'I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property - until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.'

How did this great man arrive at these predictions over 200 years ago, and how did he know that they would be correct.


Resources:

* Halal, William, E, "Technology's Promise" 2008, Palgrave MacMillin Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, ISBN: 13: 978-0-230-01954-6
* Sherden, William, A, "The Fortune Sellers," 1998, John Wiley and Sons Inc. 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY, 10158-0012, ISBN 0-471-18178

*www.Thomas Jefferson Quotes.com

Glenn W. Clark, Week 4, Futurist predictions

As we begin to develop an understanding of the furure and what it entails, we must first agree on the premise that "A new civilization is emerging in our lives, and blind men everywhere are trying to suppress it" (Sherden, p.195) Understanding this basic concept leads to the further acknowledgement that some futurist have used the introduction of fear factor in the past to attempt to initiate change. This concept has proven archaic and as managers, we must embrace change. Change is necessary to move the society along. Several Futurist " Alvin Toffler, Mikhail Gorbachev, David Suzuki, Marily Ferguson, Hazel Henderson" are amoung the best known and widely recognized futurist and sometimes attract unneccessary attention. We must seek to understand what makes a Futurist. In Sherden(1998) he states: A Futurist is "a predictor of societal change, the moniker embraces an eclectic goup of sociologists, authors, political figures, novelists, media celebrities, and numerous others who crank out thousands of books, papers, and speeches on future lifestyles, attitudes, work life, family structure, wars, revolutions, and every other imaginable aspect of society" Following in this vein, we assert that the society in which we live in is a complex system that is affected by attitudes, beliefs, and is most dramatically effected by economic changes and political strife. How can a futurist guess what is going to happen with the shere nature of our politcal system. Potential change every four years. Continual adjusting of the GNP, Fluctuations in prime interest. From this aspect, we would be better off playing games of darts in a pitch black room and not having any idea of where the board is located. This concept has become known as the unpredictable complex system and was introduced in the late 1930 by Mr. Karl Popper. Among Mr. Poppers thirteen degrees, his writings are extensive both in conceptual knowledge as well as theoretical applications of forecasting procedures. Among his most widely acclaimed works was: "The Logic of Scientific Discovery", (1935) In recent years his views that once where published fifty years ago have once again come full circle with his publication of "An Argument for Indeterminism" (1982)

Mr. Popper asserts that via analysis of complexity, the theory of "emergence of novelty" theory is one of his most important features. What is the idea a adaptability and how does it affect the methodology of forecsting. The incongruence of these opposing and sometime diametrically opposing ideas leeds us to the age old attitude that " In order to prodict the future, you must understand the past" Under study of his works, Popper avers that "scientific predictions" are impossible in social sciences. This is supported by his assertion that " Since neither proved laws of nature that invariantly determine the future course of some phenomenon nor a detailed knowledge of one's starting point (also called initial conditions) exist with much reliability in social sciences, social prediction cannot be "scientific" in the way that we can predict with great accuracy the path and futre location of heavenly bodies" (Sherden, 1998)

In essence, we cannot accept the probability of science predicting the outcome of the future to any measureable degree of accuracy and we must further disregard that social sciences can predict using basic theoretical physics